The following is a chart representing which government types can turn into which other government types.
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Hunter-gatherers can either settle as tribes or domesticate animals and become nomads with the correct technology. You can't revert from settlement back to hunter-gathering because with agriculture your population size is too large to turn back and still feed.
Nomads can settle as chiefdoms with the right building in their capital, just like in the base game of CK2. They can also settle as monarchies and republics, but this isn't included since it's more of becoming an existing government than changing the nomad government.
Tribes can upgrade to chiefdoms once they have ironworking, allowing for a greater nation size (specifically, the formation of higher titles than counties)
Chiefdoms can upgrade merchant republics, theocracies, or monarchies, depending on the level of town, church or fort in the tribe, as well as decentralise into a clan council.
Merchant republics can reduce their focus on trade and become an ordinary republic.
Clan councils can reform into republics, monarchies or theocracies, depending on the types of building upgrades that they have, as well as re-centralise back into chiefdoms.
Theocracies can become secular, and transform into monarchies. They can also become dictatorships, if the religion of the theocracy is one of the ideological "religions" like those discussed in the previous blog post.
Republics can increase their focus on trade and become merchant republics, or become less democratic and transform into a dictatorship.
Monarchies can become democratic, and transform into republics, or change their method of administration to the imperial system for large monarchies ruling over many cultures, or the iqta system for islamic monarchies.
Dictatorships can become republics if they allow fair and free elections, or monarchies if they adopt a hereditary system of rule.
Iqtas can become ordinary monarchies if they are not ruled by a muslim leader.
Empires can become ordinary monarchies if they shrink to the point where an imperial method of administration is ineffective, or if the state becomes centralised to the point it is unitary again.
